HOUSE AND SENATE ROUNDUP, 7/1

House and senate Roundup, 7/1

LA-Sen: This vie is getting close:

The good programme from this enquiry is Landrieu’s surprisingly high favorables, at 61-33,

Only thing is, Kennedy’s are even better; 61% favorable, 11% unfavorable.

Now, I kind of doubt Kennedy’s favorables could be that good, but nevertheless, that isn’t what you want to wager from a politico this year.

McCain has a wide lead over Obama in the state, as digit might expect.

ME-Sen: CQ Politics writes on the senate vie in Maine between Susan author and Tom Allen, noting that it is still difficult to gauge the chances of a Democratic restorative in Maine.

The incumbent politico author has enjoyed a substantial polling lead since comedienne entered the race, but comedienne has steadily chipped absent at that lead: Rasmussen indicated that a 16-point author lead at the first of Apr became a 10-point lead in late May, and their last enquiry indicated just a seven-point edge for the two-term Senator, with Collins’ support dropping beneath 50% for the first time. From CQ:

The narrowing between candidates shown in these polls is the termination of Mainers “hungry for change,” according to Andrews, who added, “They know things aren’t going well” in the nation. Expressing an expectation that Illinois Sen. Barack Obama will win the White House as the Democratic statesmanly nominee, naturalist said Maine voters will understand that he “will requirement a employed majority” in the senate incoming year.

Matthew Miller, DSCC subject director, contends that the drop in the senate vie enquiry margin is “due to voters having started to tune into the race,” adding that Allen’s message of tying Collins’ senate achievement to Dubya “has been taking.”

Collins’ lateral plays down the importance of the adventurer numbers, though. “I think it’s a mistake to grab onto the enquiry and feature that it shows movement,” said Steve Abbott, crusade manager and former senate honcho of staff for Collins. Abbott said the enquiry may be correct but is “different than everyone else.”

Given that Maine regularly is among the leading states in voter turnout in statesmanly election years, Abbott said there are “definitely domestic trends, and every state and vie has quirks.” But he noted the strong inclination among many Maine voters to comprehend themselves as independents, adding, “Waves don’t seem to hit here like elsewhere.”

Because both legislators are generally familiar to voters (Allen has represented half the state in legislature since 1997) and enjoy generally favorable ratings, there has not been a lot of eye-catching, dramatic movement in the race, but what movement there has been has been generally favorable for comedienne to this point.

Collins will be digit of the toughest Republicans on the country to take down this fall, due to her goodish popularity. comedienne has proven he’s no slouch, and the semipolitical environment strongly favors Democratic candidates this year. So while author has to be favored in this race, I’d be loath to make some predictions about what may happen over the incoming four months.

KS-Sen: Preliminary Q2 fundraising drawing in the Kansas senate Race indicate that Democrat Jim Slattery raised over $500,000 in the quarter, incoming to $850,000 for incumbent politico Pat Roberts.

For a Democratic politician in Kansas, $500K is a pretty good haul for digit quarter. Granted, Slattery is still in the hole in terms of cash-on-hand (Roberts has over $3.1 million).

Roberts is already on the air, and has plentitude to spend, but Slattery is display surprising snap in a difficult red-state battle. I wouldn’t be surprised if the domestic parties wind up spending in Kansas, at least a little bit.

NC-Sen: Solid poll for Elizabeth Dole, whose statewide ad crusade has given her a 15-point edge over Democrat Kay Hagan.

Hagan gets just 52% of the black vote in North Carolina (28% for Dole). We crapper fairly expect those drawing to get meliorate for Hagan, which may help near the gap.

TX-Sen: One of “Big Bad John” Cornyn’s staffers has been astroturfing individual proportional blogs, it seems, including our own.

He has done most of his damage at the excellent Burnt Orange Report, which is logical enough, but has shown up here a few times, as well as at Swing State Project.

This is reminiscent of the 2006 senate vie in New Jersey, when a noted anxiety troll at proportional journal Blue Jersey was traced backwards to the crusade of the politico candidate, Tom Kean Jr., and his spokesperson Jill Hazelbaker (who today does the aforementioned job for John McCain).

Why is this significant? From BOR:

You know who we are and who we impact for.  You know who the Democratic consultants and staffers that interpret on the place are, and who they impact for.  Now you know who is the politico operative, and who he entireness for.  Keep that in mind every time he leaves comments offensive you for supporting Lt. Col. Rick Noriega.  Keep that in mind every time he takes to the place to spin for Senator John Cornyn.  Keep that in mind when you actualise that every of the staffers for Lt. Col. Rick Noriega have disclosed their day jobs, while Senator Cornyn’s staffer lurk in the shadows, using geezerhood older dirty whisper campaigns in an online forum.

As they note, the Cornyn crusade have commented themselves on the desire for transparency in the past, when a Noriega staffer display as a blogger earlier this assemblage in an endeavor to get a schedule of Cornyn’s apearances:

“If you’re going to misrepresent yourself, be alive of speaker i.d.” Walsh said. “I don’t think misrepresenting yourself is in line with Texas values. I just find it somewhat ham-handed.”

Well.

AL-Sen: Rasmussen’s latest poll shows a pretty innocuous vie for Jeff Sessions, with composer sporting a 24-point lead over Democrat Vivian Davis Figures, 58% to 34%.

The good programme for Figures, such as it is, is that this month’s drawing aren’t as intense as last month’s (when she trailed 62% to 27%. Still, Sessions’ strong favorables (68%) in a flushed state indicate there’s not much to wager here.

House Races

KY-02: Terrific news from a House vie that hasn’t been thoughtful top-tier up until this point. SurveyUSA shows State Sen. David protagonist (D) leading State Sen. Brett Guthrie (R) in this open-seat vie to fill the centre of the unnoticeable Daffo Lewis (R).

Guthrie had a large modify plus heading into Q2, but there’s apparently great possibleness for protagonist in this vie if he managed to garner up his fundraising. I’m eager to wager what protagonist brought in in Q2: Guthrie, for his part, upraised about $300K for the quarter.

It’s a rough, wrinkled district at R+12.9, so a enquiry like this truly is a gratifying surprise.

NY-26: Here’s a triple dose of good news, in the wake of the unfortunate programme that Democratic politician Jack Davis had successfully torpedoed the millionaire’s amendment.

Not exclusive has Eric County legislator Kathy Konst dropped out of the Democratic vie for the oratory (leaving a three way vie between Davis, Jon Powers and Alice Kryzan), but she will instead separate against a politico incumbent for State Senate, where we’re just digit centre absent from a majority.

On top of that, the DCCC has made Jon Powers its newest constituent to Red To Blue:

The DCCC declared today that Jon Powers (NY-26) will immediately be additional to the Red to Blue information for unstoppered seats. Democratic congressional candidates streaming in unstoppered way earned a spot in the combative information by establishing momentous local support, surpassing demanding fundraising goals and by skillfully display voters that they stand for modify and will equal newborn priorities.  Powers is digit of exclusive 18 candidates in the Red to Blue information for unstoppered seats.

“Jon Powers has collective a strong and dynamic crusade with strong grassroots support, local labor leaders, and every heptad Democratic committees,” said Chairman Chris Van Hollen.  ”Jon Powers will alter the leadership skills he used in Iraq to the issues facing western New royalty - transfer good stipendiary jobs to the district and fighting to turn gas prices for middle collection families.  The Red to Blue Program will give Jon the financial and structural edge to be even more competitive.”

FL-21: It appears that Lincoln Diaz-Balart has been sporting the endorsement of a pair groups that have, in fact, endorsed his opponent, Democrat Raul Martinez.

”I am deeply honored by the panoptic support my crusade for reelection is receiving from the employed men and women of our community,” he said in a advise release, citing championship from unions such as the Fraternal Order of Police and United Teachers of Dade.

But two of the 12 unions on the list — the Transport Workers Union Local 291 and International Longshoremen’s Association Local 1922, both AFL-CIO affiliates — feature they didn’t endorse the politico incumbent.

”Absolutely not,” transport workers local union chair Wessell Clarke said.

Though the transport workers have thoughtful Diaz-Balart ”our friend in legislature for the time 15 years,” Clarke said, they and the longshoremen’s local went along with the Florida AFL-CIO, which voted last week to endorse Diaz-Balart’s Democratic rival, former Hialeah Mayor Raul Martinez. The union is also championship two another congressional challengers — Joe Garcia, who is streaming against Diaz-Balart’s brother, Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, and Annette Taddeo, who is trying to remove Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen.

This is actually sort of understandable. Diaz-Balart hasn’t had a tough vie in ages, so I imagine he’s not used to having some contestant strong enough to get earnest union support.

Amazing, what happens when earnest candidates start streaming against long-time incumbents, substance a modify to eld of demagoguery and ineffective leadership.

PA-06: Unlike the time three cycles, we don’t have a top-tier enlist streaming against Jim Gerlach, but that hardly means Gerlach’s discover of the woods. Registration drawing are up in the district, and a newborn Benenson enquiry indicates that Gerlach could be vulnerable if Democratic politician Bob Roggio crapper increase his familiarity to voters:

From RCP:

The problem, writes Roggio enquirer Pete Brodnitz, is digit of study recognition. Roggio is known by just 10% of district voters, and erst respondents hear a constructive message about the Democrat, he shoots to a seven-point lead. Of course, campaigns aren’t separate in a vacuum, and if Gerlach is able to fill Roggio’s study identification with perverse associations, the politico could place the crusade absent early.

Still, Gerlach isn’t in the prizewinning appearance either. 39% of voters feature he’s doing an excellent or good job, while 47% feature his job action is exclusive fair or poor. And if President Dubya is an issue, Gerlach will be in even worsened shape, as exclusive 16% of voters have a favorable view of Bush’s job performance, compared with 84% who mark him in the fair or slummy categories.

Gerlach has managed just 51% in each of his three House campaigns, just holding soured Lois Murphy in 2004 and 2006. It’s quite country he crapper be beaten: the discourse is whether Roggio is the politician to do it.

CO-04: Marilyn Musgrave somehow has managed to separate a program of uncomfortably near races in her semipolitical career, despite representing a solidly flushed district at R+8.5. This belike has something to do with the fact that Musgrave herself is a famously disputable candidate.

She hasn’t been heard from very much, on gay rights issues, since 2006, as she nearly lost election that assemblage due to existence successfully varnished as too extreme even for her standpat district. Musgrave ostensibly decided it prizewinning to keep a low strikingness and masquerade as a moderate until the Democratic storm blew over.

Well, she’s backwards to her older tricks.

After avoiding her once-signature issue for most of her third term in Congress, Marilyn Musgrave stepped backwards into the debate over gay marriage in past weeks by language on as a co-sponsor of essential amendments to define marriage as between a man and a woman.

“The sponsors of the amendments asked her to be a co-sponsor. The legislator supports traditional marriage so she agreed,” Musgrave Chief of Staff Guy Short said Monday.

Musgrave introduced essential amendments in 2003 and 2006 that defined marriage as between a man and a woman.

Musgrave is anti by Betsy Markey, a Democrat who is polling favorably incoming to the three-term incumbent. I can’t wager how this will help Musgrave, frankly, as I’m pretty sure the voters are afraid more wth gas prices, the economy, the war, and inexpensive health tending than with impractical attempts to transfer a marriage amendment through a Democratic House.

NE-02: As New Nebraska Network notes (alliteration!), Lee Terry is thoroughly useless.

So, from the time Terry took duty in January 1999, to the inform date, he passed:

1 Bill, renaming a place office.

5 Resolutions, on continuing to notice Veteran’s Day on Nov 11th, denotive 2 fellow Republicans to committees, recognizing the Marines of Company M for their 25th Annual Reunion, expressing sympathy to the Dhegiha mall actuation victims, and expressing sympathy to the Little Siouan tornado victims.

1 Amendment, accelerating acceptation of geothermal heat pumps.

The ONE Bill and the ONE Amendment are every that have embellish actualised laws.

Good on ya, Lee.

Source: feeds.dailykos.com

Tags: the persuasion of status and galston, Government, florida politics, Poltics, workplace politics

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